Thursday, May 11, 2006

 

Second Round, Second Chance?

The second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs was expected to be an interesting, entertaining, and exciting two weeks. But while most individual games have been just that, results have been one sided on the final scoreboard. In the Eastern Conference seeds one through four advanced, while five through eight did so in the west, bringing on predictions of closely contested, down-to-the-wire series'. However, the Sabres stunned Ottawa by jumping to a 3-0 series lead before dropping game four tonight in Buffalo. New Jersey's 15 game winning streak is but a distant memory as they find themselves in the hole 3-0 versus Carolina. Ilya Bryzgalov shut down the Avalanche in games one and two, while Joffrey Lupul's four goal outburst put the Ducks up 3-0 as well. At least Shawn Horcoff's goal for the Oilers in triple OT made their series interesting, as the Sharks only hold a 2-1 advantage.

So why all the lopsided standings? Well, it's an old cliche, but the answer can largely be attributed to who's getting the bounces at crucial times. Looking at the Sens-Sabres matchup, we see that all four games have been decided by one goal. Buffalo twice had to tie game one in the final two minutes to win in OT, while game 3 was also decided in extra time. After Carolina blasted the Devils in the opener, they came up with a pair of 3-2 victories. Though the 'Canes dominated the better part of game 2, they need a last-second marker to get to OT after the Devils thought they had stolen the game with a late goal of their own. All games in the Edmonton- San Jose series have been one goal affairs. Anaheim took advantage of a Colorado defensive breakdown to grab a 3-0 lead with their OT win in Denver.

You can always use "what-ifs?" to show how something could have ended differently, but in this year's conference semi-finals you seem to be able to apply them more than ever. But we all know that luck and momentum are prone to changing sides at any time, which begs the question: Is there any chance we could see a team rebound from 3-0 down to steal a series?

Ottawa got off on the right foot with a narrow victory in Buffalo after the Sabres missed two glorious chances to tie the game late (two chances we saw them bury in game one). The Sens are, afterall, the number one seed, and would have two if the final three games at home should they stage a comeback. We saw three close games go Buffalo's way, so there's no reason to believe the same thing can't happen the other way around.

The Devils were rolling along, while Carolina never quite seemed comfortable in the first round, despite winning their last four games against Montreal. Now the opposite is true, but if Carolina falls asleep again and Jersey turns it back on we could have a series on our hands.

In the first round Colorado got some unlikely goals and fortuitous game-winners against the Stars, but have not been so lucky against Anaheim. But as always, chance is subject to change.

So will we see any historic comebacks this time next week? History says no (only the '42 Maple Leafs and '75 Islanders have managed the feat), but like the Red Sox showed us in 2004, it can be done, so don't take anything for granted just yet, especially with all the suprises we've seen this season.



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