Sunday, June 04, 2006
Stanley Cup Final Preview
The Edmonton Oilers and the Carolina Hurricanes start the final series for the Stanley Cup on Monday. It should be a very closely contested series between two unlikely combatants. Carolina was picked by many to finish out of the playoffs, and while the Oilers were expected to be a decent club, few could have envisioned them gettiing this far.
Past Series: Carolina was the #2 seed in the East, drawing Montreal in round one. They dispatched the Habs in six games, and then needed only five games beat out the New Jersey Devils. Buffalo was their stiffest opponent, pushing Carolina to the brink. But in the end the Sabres were too depleted by injury and fell in game 7. The Hurricanes' record sits at 12-6. They are 7-3 at home, and are 5-3 on the road. In overtime games they are 4-2. Edmonton is the first eighth place team to reach the finals. They upset the Red Wings in six games, and did likewise to San Jose. Despite the flu bug hitting them, they managed a five game victory over Anaheim. On home ice the Oilers 6-2, and they are 6-3 on the road for a 12-5 record overall. They've only been to extra time on three occasions, but all of those went into double or triple OT. Their record is two wins, one loss.
History: These two teams have never met in the NHL playoffs, but did see each other in the postseason back in their WHA days. This marks the first time that two former WHA teams have played each other for the Cup. The NHL playoffs have been much kinder to Edmonton. They are in the final series for the seventh time, and have won five Stanley Cups. Thier all-time record is 20 wins, 10 losses. This is Carolina's second trip to the final, they lost the previous one to Detroit in 2002, four games to one.
Forwards: Both teams are deep at all forward positions. They rely on all four lines contributing to win games. Carolina boasts more star power with the likes of Rod Brind'Amour and Eric Staal, and has several players who have been to the finals before. The Oilers have a more rough and tumble approach with Ryan Smyth, Ethan Moreau and Mike Peca amongst others who can play physical. Give the Hurricanes a slight advantage.
Defense: The Oilers are clearly superior on the back end. Chris Pronger will easily be the best d-man out there. After Pronger, the two bluelines looks fairly equal to each other with a good blend of skill a toughness, but having the Conn Smythe candidate back there to eat up 30 minutes is a difference that Carolina cannot make up.
Goaltending: Cam Ward was spectacular early on, but looked average against Buffalo, opening the door for Martin Gerber to get a start. Ward came back to win games five and seven for Carolina, but has not been at the same level that he showed against Montreal early on. In the Edmonton crease Dwayne Roloson has gotten better with each passing series, so he should be in peak form for the finals.
Intangibles:
-Both teams have faced adversity to get here. Carolina went down 2-0 to Montreal, but Eric Staal saved them with an OT winner in game three after the 'Canes tied the game in the third period. The Oilers were in the hole 2-0 against the Sharks, but in eerily similar fashion, scored a third period goal in game three to force OT. Roloson then made the save of the playoffs off Jonathan Cheechoo to allow Shawn Horcoff to bag the winner later on.
-Carolina has still never looked fully comfortable in these playoffs. Oddly enough, their best game may well have been a blowout loss in the very first game against Montreal. They dominated the entire game, but Gerber's horrid netminding and Cristobal Huet's suberb outing resulted in a lopsided defeat. They have squeeked out numerous close games along the way, and even the Sabres with their top four d-men injured very nearly stole the series from them. Not to say they haven't been impressive, but I haven't yet seen them fire on all cylinders.
-Edmonton is not a typical cinderella team. Mainly, their pitiful goaltending and also the inability to beat bottom feeder teams is the only reason they didn't win their division. They have not greatly altered their style of play either, maintaining a more offensive posture most of the time. Other surprise finalists often played highly conservative defensive games in hopes that they could grind out a goal or two and rely on a goaltender to steal games for them. Roloson has been terrific and won his fair share of games for the Oilers, but is not the sole reason for them being where they are.
-Carolina has more veteran players who have had long careers without winning a Cup. This could well be the last chance for Glen Wesley, in his fourth finals, and Rod Brind'Amour, in his third, to finally lift the Cup. Doug Weight is also looking for his first ring, as are Ray Whitney and Bret Hedican who's been to the finals twice with no success. Edmonton has 37 year old Roloson and Igor Ulanov, and while they do have some Cup-less vets like Pronger and Peca, the first two are the only ones where this is almost certainly their last shot.
Prediction: This will be one of the most exciting and closest finals we have seen in a while. The old addage that defense and hot goaltending win championships shouldn't be ignored. This gives Edmonton the advantage, but it should also be pointed out that the road team has not won the final series since the 1997 Red Wings. Yet history sides with Edmonton, because they have started on the road in three of their five Stanley Cup wins. (1984 and 85 were played in a 2-3-2 format, 1990 in the current 2-2-1-1-1). Conventional wisdom says picking Edmonton in 7 would be foolish, since the home team has only ever lost game 7 of the finals twice. Both times were somewhat questionable circumstances as well. In 1971 Chicago led Montreal 2-0, and after Bobby Hull rang the would-be 3-0 goal off the post, Henri Richard miraculously scored from center ice to bring the Canadiens back for a 3-2 win. In 1945 Toronto beat Detroit, but the Leafs had led the series 3-0 before the Wings stormed back to tie it up, only to lose game 7 at home. The lowest seeded team to win the Stanley Cup under the current conference format was the 5th seeded 1995 Devils, and again, the shortened 48 game season puts a question mark beside that, so Carolina has that advantage. But in this season of strange happenings, there might be room for one more, so I will take the Oilers and Roloson in 7 games.
Past Series: Carolina was the #2 seed in the East, drawing Montreal in round one. They dispatched the Habs in six games, and then needed only five games beat out the New Jersey Devils. Buffalo was their stiffest opponent, pushing Carolina to the brink. But in the end the Sabres were too depleted by injury and fell in game 7. The Hurricanes' record sits at 12-6. They are 7-3 at home, and are 5-3 on the road. In overtime games they are 4-2. Edmonton is the first eighth place team to reach the finals. They upset the Red Wings in six games, and did likewise to San Jose. Despite the flu bug hitting them, they managed a five game victory over Anaheim. On home ice the Oilers 6-2, and they are 6-3 on the road for a 12-5 record overall. They've only been to extra time on three occasions, but all of those went into double or triple OT. Their record is two wins, one loss.
History: These two teams have never met in the NHL playoffs, but did see each other in the postseason back in their WHA days. This marks the first time that two former WHA teams have played each other for the Cup. The NHL playoffs have been much kinder to Edmonton. They are in the final series for the seventh time, and have won five Stanley Cups. Thier all-time record is 20 wins, 10 losses. This is Carolina's second trip to the final, they lost the previous one to Detroit in 2002, four games to one.
Forwards: Both teams are deep at all forward positions. They rely on all four lines contributing to win games. Carolina boasts more star power with the likes of Rod Brind'Amour and Eric Staal, and has several players who have been to the finals before. The Oilers have a more rough and tumble approach with Ryan Smyth, Ethan Moreau and Mike Peca amongst others who can play physical. Give the Hurricanes a slight advantage.
Defense: The Oilers are clearly superior on the back end. Chris Pronger will easily be the best d-man out there. After Pronger, the two bluelines looks fairly equal to each other with a good blend of skill a toughness, but having the Conn Smythe candidate back there to eat up 30 minutes is a difference that Carolina cannot make up.
Goaltending: Cam Ward was spectacular early on, but looked average against Buffalo, opening the door for Martin Gerber to get a start. Ward came back to win games five and seven for Carolina, but has not been at the same level that he showed against Montreal early on. In the Edmonton crease Dwayne Roloson has gotten better with each passing series, so he should be in peak form for the finals.
Intangibles:
-Both teams have faced adversity to get here. Carolina went down 2-0 to Montreal, but Eric Staal saved them with an OT winner in game three after the 'Canes tied the game in the third period. The Oilers were in the hole 2-0 against the Sharks, but in eerily similar fashion, scored a third period goal in game three to force OT. Roloson then made the save of the playoffs off Jonathan Cheechoo to allow Shawn Horcoff to bag the winner later on.
-Carolina has still never looked fully comfortable in these playoffs. Oddly enough, their best game may well have been a blowout loss in the very first game against Montreal. They dominated the entire game, but Gerber's horrid netminding and Cristobal Huet's suberb outing resulted in a lopsided defeat. They have squeeked out numerous close games along the way, and even the Sabres with their top four d-men injured very nearly stole the series from them. Not to say they haven't been impressive, but I haven't yet seen them fire on all cylinders.
-Edmonton is not a typical cinderella team. Mainly, their pitiful goaltending and also the inability to beat bottom feeder teams is the only reason they didn't win their division. They have not greatly altered their style of play either, maintaining a more offensive posture most of the time. Other surprise finalists often played highly conservative defensive games in hopes that they could grind out a goal or two and rely on a goaltender to steal games for them. Roloson has been terrific and won his fair share of games for the Oilers, but is not the sole reason for them being where they are.
-Carolina has more veteran players who have had long careers without winning a Cup. This could well be the last chance for Glen Wesley, in his fourth finals, and Rod Brind'Amour, in his third, to finally lift the Cup. Doug Weight is also looking for his first ring, as are Ray Whitney and Bret Hedican who's been to the finals twice with no success. Edmonton has 37 year old Roloson and Igor Ulanov, and while they do have some Cup-less vets like Pronger and Peca, the first two are the only ones where this is almost certainly their last shot.
Prediction: This will be one of the most exciting and closest finals we have seen in a while. The old addage that defense and hot goaltending win championships shouldn't be ignored. This gives Edmonton the advantage, but it should also be pointed out that the road team has not won the final series since the 1997 Red Wings. Yet history sides with Edmonton, because they have started on the road in three of their five Stanley Cup wins. (1984 and 85 were played in a 2-3-2 format, 1990 in the current 2-2-1-1-1). Conventional wisdom says picking Edmonton in 7 would be foolish, since the home team has only ever lost game 7 of the finals twice. Both times were somewhat questionable circumstances as well. In 1971 Chicago led Montreal 2-0, and after Bobby Hull rang the would-be 3-0 goal off the post, Henri Richard miraculously scored from center ice to bring the Canadiens back for a 3-2 win. In 1945 Toronto beat Detroit, but the Leafs had led the series 3-0 before the Wings stormed back to tie it up, only to lose game 7 at home. The lowest seeded team to win the Stanley Cup under the current conference format was the 5th seeded 1995 Devils, and again, the shortened 48 game season puts a question mark beside that, so Carolina has that advantage. But in this season of strange happenings, there might be room for one more, so I will take the Oilers and Roloson in 7 games.
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